Time Series Forecasting
Ecommerce Book Sales Forecast Using Prophet
This is a time series forecasting pipeline built using Prophet to predict qty and revenue per category using daily ecommerce book sales data from 2020-2022. The model was tuned using a grid search with a time-based holdout split (train before 2022-01-01, test from 2022-01-01 onward) over key Prophet hyperparameters (seasonality mode, changepoint/seasonality priors, yearly seasonality), and enhanced with holiday effects and additional custom seasonalities (monthly/semester). Accuracy was measured using WAPE and MAE at both daily and weekly-aggregated levels, with a 7-day seasonal naive baseline (t-7) used for context.